Predictors of adolescents' change in reading literacy: the role of reading strategies, reading motivation, and declarative metacognition

Declarative metacognition, use of reading strategies and reading motivation are important predictors of reading literacy. Moreover, reading motivation's strong links with reading strategy use and declarative metacognition raise questions about whether motivation moderates the effects of the latter on reading literacy and its development during secondary school. Whereas most previous research implemented cross-sectional analyses focusing on one or more of the aforementioned variables, this study takes a longitudinal perspective to examine how reading motivation (reading for enjoyment versus interest), declarative metacognition and reading strategy use - directly or in interaction - concurrently predict reading literacy in Grade 7 and subsequent changes until Grade 9. Applying structural equation models to a sample of 4,037 secondary school students from the German National Educational Panel Study, the results revealed that reading for enjoyment and declarative metacognition had strong effects on reading literacy in Grade 7. In contrast, reading for interest exhibited a small negative effect and the effects of strategy use were negligible. Longitudinal analyses replicated the cross-sectional pattern with more modest effect sizes. Contrary to our hypotheses, the effects of declarative metacognition and reading strategy use on reading literacy at Grade 7 as well as changes in reading literacy until Grade 9 were not moderated by aspects of reading motivation. Finally, regarding the trajectory of reading literacy, our results challenge previous assumptions on the importance of reading for interest and reading strategies use, but also confirm earlier findings on the relevance of declarative metacognition and reading for enjoyment.