Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia

被引：4

作者：

Thakkar, Niket ^{[1
]}

Abubakar, Ali Haji Adam ^{[2
]}

Shube, Mukhtar ^{[2
]}

Jama, Mustafe Awil ^{[2
]}

Derow, Mohamed ^{[2
]}

Lambach, Philipp ^{[3
]}

Ashmony, Hossam ^{[4
]}

Farid, Muhammad ^{[4
]}

Sim, So Yoon ^{[3
]}

O'Connor, Patrick ^{[3
]}

Minta, Anna ^{[3
]}

Bose, Anindya Sekhar ^{[3
]}

Musanhu, Patience ^{[5
]}

Hasan, Quamrul ^{[6
]}

Bar-Zeev, Naor ^{[3
]}

Malik, Sk Md Mamunur Rahman ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Bill & Melinda Gates Fdn, Inst Dis Modeling, Seattle, WA 98109 USA

[2] Fed Minist Hlth, POB 22, Mogadishu, Somalia

[3] WHO, CH-1202 Geneva, Switzerland

[4] WHO, Mogadishu 63565, Somalia

[5] Gavi, Vaccine Alliance, CH-1218 Geneva, Switzerland

[6] WHO, Reg Off Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo 11371, Egypt

来源：

VACCINES | 2024年 / 12卷 / 03期

关键词：

measles; vaccination campaign; transmission model; serology; Somalia; TIME;

D O I：

10.3390/vaccines12030314

中图分类号：

R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];

学科分类号：

100102 ;

摘要：

Somalia is a complex and fragile setting with a demonstrated potential for disruptive, high-burden measles outbreaks. In response, since 2018, Somalian authorities have partnered with UNICEF and the WHO to implement measles vaccination campaigns across the country. In this paper, we create a Somalia-specific model of measles transmission based on a comprehensive epidemiological dataset including case-based surveillance, vaccine registries, and serological surveys. We use this model to assess the impact of these campaign interventions on Somalian's measles susceptibility, showing, for example, that across the roughly 10 million doses delivered, 1 of every 5 immunized a susceptible child. Finally, we use the model to explore a counter-factual epidemiology without the 2019-2020 campaigns, and we estimate that those interventions prevented over 10,000 deaths.

引用

页数：7

共 18 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 2017, Wkly Epidemiol Rec, V92, P205

[2]

[Anonymous], Immunization Agenda 2030: A Global Strategy to Leave No One Behind

[3] Leveraging a national biorepository in Zambia to assess measles and rubella immunity gaps across age and space [J].

Carcelen, Andrea C. ;

Winter, Amy K. ;

Moss, William J. ;

Chilumba, Innocent ;

Mutale, Irene ;

Chongwe, Gershom ;

Monze, Mwaka ;

Mulundu, Gina ;

Nkamba, Hope ;

Mwansa, Francis. D. ;

Mulenga, Lloyd ;

Rhoda, Dale A. ;

Hayford, Kyla ;

Mutembo, Simon .

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 2022, 12 (01)

[4]

Carter A., Vaccine

[5] The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa [J].

Ferrari, Matthew J. ;

Grais, Rebecca F. ;

Bharti, Nita ;

Conlan, Andrew J. K. ;

Bjornstad, Ottar N. ;

Wolfson, Lara J. ;

Guerin, Philippe J. ;

Djibo, Ali ;

Grenfell, Bryan T. .

NATURE, 2008, 451 (7179) :679-684

[6] Time series modelling of childhood diseases:: a dynamical systems approach [J].

Finkenstädt, BF ;

Grenfell, BT .

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS, 2000, 49 :187-205

[7] Time is of the essence: exploring a measles outbreak response vaccination in Niamey, Niger [J].

Grais, R. F. ;

Conlan, A. J. K. ;

Ferrari, M. J. ;

Djibo, A. ;

Le Menach, A. ;

Bjornstad, O. N. ;

Grenfell, B. T. .

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, 2008, 5 (18) :67-74

[8]

Integrated Food Security, 2022, Phase Classification Somalia: Acute Malnutrition Situation July-September 2022 and Projection for October-December 2022

[9] MEASLES IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES .1. EPIDEMIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND PATTERNS [J].

MCLEAN, AR ;

ANDERSON, RM .

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, 1988, 100 (01) :111-133

[10] Demographical, clinical, and complication differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated hospitalized children with measles in mogadishu somalia: a hospital-based retrospective cohort study [J].

Mohamud, Abdirahman Khalif ;

Ahmed, Omar Abdullahi ;

Ali, Ikran Abdulkadir ;

Dirie, Najib Isse .

ANNALS OF MEDICINE AND SURGERY, 2023, 85 (05) :1550-1555

← 1 2 →