A methodology to evaluate gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline network considering the effects of natural gas resources

被引：14

作者：

Shan, Xiangying ^{[1
]}

Yu, Weichao ^{[2
]}

Gong, Jing ^{[1
]}

Huang, Weihe ^{[3
]}

Wen, Kai ^{[1
]}

Wang, Hao ^{[1
]}

Ren, Shipeng ^{[1
]}

Wang, Di ^{[4
]}

Shi, Yongheng ^{[2
]}

Liu, Chunyue ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] China Univ Petr, Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety, MOE Key Lab Petr Engn, Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China

[2] PIPECHINA Oil & Gas Control Ctr, Dongtucheng Rd, Beijing 100028, Peoples R China

[3] PetroChina Co Ltd, China Natl Petr Corp, Beijing 100007, Peoples R China

[4] China Oil & Gas Pipeline Network Corp, Dongtucheng Rd, Beijing 100028, Peoples R China

[5] CNOOC EnerTech Equipment Technol Res & Design Ctr, Tianjin 300452, Peoples R China

来源：

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY | 2023年 / 238卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金; 中国博士后科学基金;

关键词：

Natural gas pipeline network; Gas supply reliability; Natural gas resource; Gas supply capacity; Stochastic characteristics; TRANSMISSION-SYSTEM; SECURITY; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ress.2023.109431

中图分类号：

T [工业技术];

学科分类号：

08 ;

摘要：

In this study, a methodology to evaluate gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline network is proposed, and the uncertainty of the gas supply capacity of the natural gas resources is considered. The methodology is composed of four parts. Firstly, the gas supply capacity calculation model of natural gas resources considering its stochastic and time-dependent characteristics is described. Secondly, the gas demand prediction model is developed based on the demand-side analysis. Thirdly, the gas supply calculation model of natural gas pipeline network is proposed considering units failure and hydraulic characteristics. Finally, according to the established gas supply reliability index system, the gas supply reliability indicators are calculated based on N (N is a large number) times of Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, a real natural gas pipeline network located in China is applied to confirm the feasibility of the methodology, and the gas supply reliability is evaluated based on quantity and time dimensions, and the results are reduced by about 3.9% and 4.1% compared with the results calculated by the method which ignored the uncertainty of resources. At last, the significance of the natural gas resources in the gas supply reliability is investigated by the sensitivity analysis.

引用

页数：14

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