Distance Traveled in Times of Pandemic: An Endogenous Switching Regression Approach

This paper studies the change in the distance traveled by domestic tourists considering the pre- and post-pandemic outbreak summer periods of 2019 and 2020. Using representative monthly microdata involving more than 31,000 trips conducted by Spanish residents, we examine the heterogeneity in behavioral adaptation to COVID-19 based on sociodemographic and trip-related characteristics. To account for selection effects and the potential change in the population composition of travelers between the two periods, we estimate an endogenous switching regression that conducts separate regressions for the pre- and post-pandemic periods in a unified econometric framework. Our results point to heterogeneous shifts in the distance traveled by domestic travelers after COVID-19 outbreak per sociodemographic group, with notable differences by travel purpose and lower relevance of traditional determinants like income.