Where to draw the line? Climate change-conflict-migration-terrorism causal relations and a contested politics of implication

This paper explores the politics of epistemological claims which link climate change, conflict, migration and terrorism in causal relationships. The paper contends that attempts to establish such causal relationships in conditions of empirical complexity are characterised by a contested politics of implication. Drawing on a critical discourse analysis of a UN Security Council debate on climate security (December 9, 2021), and the concept of linguistic implicature (referring to the non-explicit, inferential meanings which can follow from language use), the paper traces two logics which could suggest a politics of racial implication in climate security discourses: first, a compulsive climatic determinism which roots risks of terrorist violence in climate-affected populations; and second, a logic of proxy geographies in which dehumanisation could be implicated through natural world metaphors. Overall, this paper seeks to provide an understanding of how the inferential meanings associated with claims linking climate change, migration, conflict and terrorism could constitute potentially unequal outcomes in climate security politics and policymaking.