Study on China's energy system resilience under the scenarios of long-term shortage of imported oil

As a resource for human survival, energy is inevitably affected by the turbulence of the world. More than 70% of China's dependence on foreign oil poses a potential threat to its energy security. Generally speaking, short-term oil import shortages can be solved through strategic reserves, emergency production and other measures. However, the long-term import shortage must be addressed through energy transition, efficiency improvement and technological breakthroughs. To explore the ability of China's energy system (CES) to cope with the long-term oil import shortage, we established a CES resilience model under the 17 scenarios of long-term oil import shortage based on the resilience theory and system dynamics (SD). The research conclusions are: CES is relatively resilient and can better cope with long-term oil import shortages. Different measures have different mechanisms for restoring system performance, and the measures during the recovery period should be reason-ably configured. Compared with the radical energy transition path, the resilience of CES under the steady energy transition path is about 10% higher.