Assessment and Management Zoning of Ecosystem Service Trade-Off/Synergy Based on the Social-Ecological Balance: A Case of the Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area

Clarifying the trade-offs/synergies of ecosystem services is crucial for achieving a win-win situation in economic development and ecological conservation. Past studies have lacked research on ecosystem service functional management zones that integrate socio-economic factors and ecological conservation, particularly based on predictive scenarios. Based on the above, this study innovatively established a multi scenario simulation model and framework (EST-EMZ) for the study of ecosystem service (ES) trade-off/synergy and ecological management zoning, combining remote sensing and socio-economic data from 2000 to 2020 in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area (CZTMA). The model evaluates the dynamic trade-offs/synergies among different ecosystem services under various scenarios, aiming to seek the optimal management approach for enhancing the functionality and optimizing the structure of ESs in the future of the CZTMA. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) of the CZTMA gradually declined from 601.57 billion yuan to 584.65 billion yuan. Under the three future scenarios, the ESV also decreased, with the Ecological Conservation Scenario (ECS) experiencing the most minor decline, and the Economic Priority Scenario (EPS) witnessing the most substantial decrease. (2) In the historical period and the 2030 predicted scenarios, there is a predominant synergy among paired ESs in the CZTMA. Throughout the study period, the region's dominant ecosystem service bundle (ESB) is the high-service ecological regulation bundle, primarily located in the northeastern, western, and southern areas dominated by forests. (3) Based on ESV and urbanization intensity (UI), five different ecosystem management zones were identified: water balance zone (WBZ), coordinated improvement zone (CIZ), ecologically weak zone (EWZ), ecological conservation zone (ECZ), and ecological derivative zone (EDZ). Corresponding management and protection strategies for ecosystem services were proposed. The research findings offer potential solutions for optimizing land use and managing the trade-offs of ESs in metropolitan areas.