Trends and Patterns of Antibiotic Prescriptions in Primary Care Institutions in Southwest China, 2017-2022

Purpose: To explore the prescription patterns and usage trends of antibiotics within primary care institutions located in underdeveloped regions of China from 2017 to 2022. Methods: A retrospective analysis of antibiotic prescriptions was conducted from 25 primary care institutions in Guizhou Province during the period of 2017-2022. Antibiotic prescriptions were categorized into appropriate and inappropriate use. Appropriate use is further categorized into preferred medication, and antibiotics can be used or substituted. Inappropriate use is further categorized into unnecessary use, incorrect spectrum of antibiotics and combined use of antibiotics. Factors associated with inappropriate use were investigated using generalized estimation equations. Holt-Winters and SARIMA models were employed to predict the number of inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions as the alternative model. Results: A total of 941,924 prescriptions were included, revealing a decreasing trend in both the number and inappropriate rates of antibiotic prescriptions from 2017 to 2022. Diseases of the respiratory system (70.66%) was the most frequent target of antibiotic use, with acute upper respiratory infections of multiple and unspecified sites representing 52.04% of these cases. The most commonly used antibiotics were penicillins (64.44%). Among all prescriptions, inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions reached 66.19%. Physicians aged over 35, holding the title of associate chief physician and possessing more than 11 years of experience were more likely to prescribe antibiotics inappropriately. The phenomenon of inappropriate antibiotic use was commoner among children aged five or younger. By comparing model parameters, it was determined that the SARIMA model outperforms the Holt-Winters model in predicting the number of inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions among primary care institutions. Conclusion: The number and inappropriate rates of antibiotic prescriptions in southwest China exhibited a downward trend from 2017 to 2022, but inappropriate prescription remains a serious problem in primary care institutions. Therefore, future efforts should focus on strengthening physician education, training, and clinical practice. Additionally, physicians' awareness of common misconceptions about inappropriate antibiotic use must be improved, and the prescribing behavior of physicians who fulfill patients' expectations by prescribing antibiotics needs to be modified.