Epidemic Spreading in Metapopulation Networks Coupled With Awareness Propagation

被引:28
作者
Gao, Shupeng [1 ,2 ]
Dai, Xiangfeng [1 ,2 ]
Wang, Lin [3 ]
Perra, Nicola [4 ]
Wang, Zhen [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Northwestern Polytech Univ, Sch Mech Engn, Xian 710072, Peoples R China
[2] Northwestern Polytech Univ, Sch Artificial Intelligence Opt & Elect, Xian 710072, Peoples R China
[3] Univ Cambridge, Dept Genet, Cambridge CB2 3EH, England
[4] Queen Mary Univ London, Sch Math Sci, London E1 4NS, England
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Epidemics; Sociology; Multiplexing; Physical layer; Mathematical models; Behavioral sciences; Correlation; Awareness propagation; epidemic spreading; metapopulation networks; multiplex structure; INFECTIOUS-DISEASES; MOBILITY; BEHAVIOR; MODEL; INFORMATION; DYNAMICS; COVID-19; IMPACT;
D O I
10.1109/TCYB.2022.3198732
中图分类号
TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];
学科分类号
0812 ;
摘要
Understanding the feedback loop that links the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases and human behavior is an open problem. To study this problem, we develop a multiplex framework that couples epidemic spreading across subpopulations in a metapopulation network (i.e., physical layer) with the spreading of awareness about the epidemic in a communication network (i.e., virtual layer). We explicitly study the interactions between the mobility patterns across subpopulations and the awareness propagation among individuals. We analyze the coupled dynamics using microscopic Markov chains (MMCs) equations and validate the theoretical results via Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. We find that with the spreading of awareness, reducing human mobility becomes more effective in mitigating the large-scale epidemic. We also investigate the influence of varying topological features of the physical and virtual layers and the correlation between the connectivity and local population size per subpopulation. Overall the proposed modeling framework and findings contribute to the growing literature investigating the interplay between the spatiotemporal spread of epidemics and human behavior.
引用
收藏
页码:7686 / 7698
页数:13
相关论文
共 64 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], 2008, Dynamical processes on complex networks
[2]   Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: The GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model [J].
Balcan, Duygu ;
Goncalves, Bruno ;
Hu, Hao ;
Ramasco, Jose J. ;
Colizza, Vittoria ;
Vespignani, Alessandro .
JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE, 2010, 1 (03) :132-145
[3]   Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns [J].
Balcan, Duygu ;
Vespignani, Alessandro .
NATURE PHYSICS, 2011, 7 (07) :581-586
[4]   Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases [J].
Balcan, Duygu ;
Colizza, Vittoria ;
Goncalves, Bruno ;
Hu, Hao ;
Ramasco, Jose J. ;
Vespignani, Alessandro .
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2009, 106 (51) :21484-21489
[5]   Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility [J].
Balcan, Duygu ;
Hu, Hao ;
Goncalves, Bruno ;
Bajardi, Paolo ;
Poletto, Chiara ;
Ramasco, Jose J. ;
Paolotti, Daniela ;
Perra, Nicola ;
Tizzoni, Michele ;
Van den Broeck, Wouter ;
Colizza, Vittoria ;
Vespignani, Alessandro .
BMC MEDICINE, 2009, 7 :45
[6]   Emergence of scaling in random networks [J].
Barabási, AL ;
Albert, R .
SCIENCE, 1999, 286 (5439) :509-512
[7]  
Bernoulli Daniel, 1760, MAEMOIRES MATHEEMATI, P1
[8]  
Chinazzi M, 2020, SCIENCE, V368, P395, DOI [10.1126/science.aba9757, 10.1101/2020.02.09.20021261]
[9]   Invasion threshold in heterogeneous metapopulation networks [J].
Colizza, Vittoria ;
Vespignani, Alessandro .
PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS, 2007, 99 (14)
[10]   Epidemic modeling in metapopulation systems with heterogeneous coupling pattern: Theory and simulations [J].
Colizza, Vittoria ;
Vespignani, Alessandro .
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY, 2008, 251 (03) :450-467