Machine learning modeling structures and framework for short-term forecasting and long-term projection of Streamflow

被引:7
作者
Tran, Trung Duc [1 ]
Kim, Jongho [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Ulsan, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Ulsan, South Korea
关键词
Modeling framework; LSTM structure; Forecasting; Projection; Dual-optimization; Machine learning; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORK; MONTHLY INFLOW; UNCERTAINTY; INTELLIGENCE; ENSEMBLE; DAM;
D O I
10.1007/s00477-023-02621-y
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Reliable short-term forecasting and long-term projection of streamflow are essential. However, few research models for machine learning structures systematized for short- and long-term time-series predictions and frameworks for simultaneously optimizing hyperparameters are available. In this study, to improve the accuracy degradation phenomenon that occurs especially in long-term forecasting and maximize its efficiency, four long-short term memory (LSTM) model structures (msLSTM, srLSTM, spLSTM, and mjLSTM) with time-invariant or time-variant features are clearly systematized for the first time. We then compare three optimization methods and newly present a dual-loop framework for simultaneously optimizing various hyperparameters that are independent of each other. Finally, using a proposed model structure and dual-optimization framework, future changes in daily streamflow are evaluated. From the results obtained, we can conclude that: (i) the srLSTM structure is appropriate for short-term forecasting, specifically for predicting one to five steps ahead, while the mjLSTM structure is recommended for long-term projection; (ii) Bayesian optimization offers superior accuracy and efficiency compared with a Grid or Random search, and it is preferred for the design of the dual-loop optimization framework required to maximize model performance; and (iii) under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, annual streamflow is projected to increase by approximately 10-20%, and monthly precipitation and streamflow are also expected to increase by at least 10% to a maximum of 40%. The comprehensive model structure and framework proposed in this study offer a promising solution for addressing both short-term forecasting and long-term projection problems using machine learning models.
引用
收藏
页码:793 / 813
页数:21
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