Sediment Entrainment and Slump Blocks Limit Permafrost Riverbank Erosion

Climatic warming and permafrost thaw are predicted to increase Arctic riverbank erosion, threatening communities and accelerating sediment, carbon and nutrient cycling between rivers and floodplains. Existing theory assumes that pore-ice thaw sets riverbank erosion rates, but overpredicts observed erosion rates by orders of magnitude. Here, we developed a simple model that predicts more modest rates due to a sediment-entrainment limitation and riverbank armoring by slump blocks. Results show that during times of thaw-limited erosion, the river rapidly erodes permafrost and undercuts its banks, consistent with previous work. However, overhanging banks generate slump blocks that must thaw and erode by sediment entrainment. Sediment entrainment can limit bank and slump block erosion rates, producing seasonally averaged rates more consistent with observations. Importantly, entrainment-limited riverbank erosion does not depend on water temperature, indicating that decadal erosion rates may be less sensitive to warming than predicted previously.