Automation, productivity, and innovation in information technology

The rate of innovation in Information Technology (IT) has slowed down over time. The slowdown is evident both in the data on quality-adjusted prices of computers, and performance of microprocessors used in computers. The model in this paper shows that an IT-labor elasticity of substitution that is greater than 1 can explain the slowdown. With an elasticity of substitution greater than 1, however, slowing innovation can result in sustained labor productivity and output growth. Sustained growth is possible because an IT-labor elasticity of substitution greater than 1 results in a continuously increasing share of IT in production costs, which counteracts the effect of slowing innovation on labor productivity and output growth. In this environment of slowing innovation, increasing IT share and sustained growth, employment can increase or decrease, depending on the values of the IT-labor elasticity of substitution and the price elasticity of demand for IT-enabled consumption goods.