Novel prognostic nomogram for predicting recurrence-free survival in medullary thyroid carcinoma

被引：5

作者：

Aksoy, Yagiz A. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Xu, Bin ^{[4
]}

Viswanathan, Kartik ^{[5
]}

Ahadi, Mahsa S. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Al Ghuzlan, Abir ^{[6
]}

Alzumaili, Bayan ^{[7
]}

Bani, Mohamed-Amine ^{[6
]}

Barletta, Justine A. ^{[8
]}

Chau, Nicole ^{[8
]}

Chou, Angela ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Clarkson, Adele ^{[1
,2
]}

Clifton-Bligh, Roderick J. ^{[3
,9
]}

De Leo, Antonio ^{[10
]}

Dogan, Snjezana ^{[4
]}

Ganly, Ian ^{[11
]}

Ghossein, Ronald ^{[4
]}

Gild, Matti L. ^{[3
,12
]}

Glover, Anthony R. ^{[3
,9
]}

Hadoux, Julien ^{[13
]}

Lamartina, Livia ^{[13
]}

Lubin, Daniel J. ^{[5
]}

Magliocca, Kelly ^{[5
]}

Najdawi, Fedaa ^{[8
]}

Nigam, Arad ^{[11
]}

Papachristos, Alex ^{[3
,9
,12
]}

Repaci, Andrea ^{[14
]}

Robinson, Bruce G. ^{[3
,9
,12
]}

Sheen, Amy ^{[1
,2
]}

Shi, Qiuying ^{[5
]}

Sidhu, Stan B. ^{[3
,9
,12
]}

Sioson, Loretta ^{[1
,2
]}

Solaroli, Erica ^{[15
]}

Sywak, Mark S. ^{[3
,9
]}

Tallini, Giovanni ^{[10
]}

Tsang, Venessa ^{[3
,12
]}

Turchini, John ^{[1
,3
,16
]}

Untch, Brian R. ^{[11
]}

Gill, Anthony J. ^{[1
,2
,3
,17
]}

Fuchs, Talia L. ^{[1
,3
,16
]}

机构：

[1] Royal North Shore Hosp, Kolling Inst Med Res, Canc Diag & Pathol Grp, St Leonards, Australia

[2] Royal North Shore Hosp, Dept Anat Pathol, NSW Hlth Pathol, St Leonards, Australia

[3] Univ Sydney, Sydney Med Sch, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[4] Mem Sloan Kettering Canc Ctr, Dept Pathol & Lab Med, New York, NY USA

[5] Emory Univ Hosp Midtown, Dept Pathol, Atlanta, GA USA

[6] Gustave Roussy Campus Canc, Med Pathol & Biol Dept, Villejuif, France

[7] Massachusetts Gen Hosp, Dept Pathol, Boston, MA USA

[8] Harvard Med Sch, Brigham & Womens Hosp, Dept Pathol, Boston, MA USA

[9] Univ Sydney, Royal North Shore Hosp, Endocrine Surg Unit, St Leonards, NSW, Australia

[10] Univ Bologna, Dept Med & Surg Sci DIMEC, IRCCS Azienda Osped Univ Bologna, Med Ctr, Bologna, Italy

[11] Mem Sloan Kettering Canc Ctr, Dept Surg, New York, NY USA

[12] Royal North Shore Hosp, Dept Endocrinol, St Leonards, NSW, Australia

[13] Gustave Roussy Campus Canc, Endocrine Oncol, Villejuif, France

[14] IRCCS Azienda Osped Univ Bologna, Div Endocrinol & Diabet Prevent & Care, Bologna, Italy

[15] Azienda USL Bologna, Endocrinol Unit, Bologna, Italy

[16] Douglass Hanly Moir Pathol, Macquarie Pk, NSW, Australia

[17] Royal North Shore Hosp, Dept Anat Pathol, Pacific Highway, St Leonards, NSW 2065, Australia

来源：

HISTOPATHOLOGY | 2024年 / 84卷 / 06期

关键词：

medullary thyroid carcinoma; prognostic nomogram;

D O I：

10.1111/his.15141

中图分类号：

Q2 [细胞生物学];

学科分类号：

071009 ; 090102 ;

摘要：

AimsRecently, there have been attempts to improve prognostication and therefore better guide treatment for patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). In 2022, the International MTC Grading System (IMTCGS) was developed and validated using a multi-institutional cohort of 327 patients. The aim of the current study was to build upon the findings of the IMTCGS to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) in MTC.Methods and ResultsData from 300 patients with MTC from five centres across the USA, Europe, and Australia were used to develop a prognostic nomogram that included the following variables: age, sex, AJCC stage, tumour size, mitotic count, necrosis, Ki67 index, lymphovascular invasion, microscopic extrathyroidal extension, and margin status. A process of 10-fold cross-validation was used to optimize the model's performance. To assess discrimination and calibration, the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance-index (C-index), and dissimilarity index (D-index) were calculated. Finally, the model was externally validated using a separate cohort of 87 MTC patients. The model demonstrated very strong performance, with an AUC of 0.94, a C-index of 0.876, and a D-index of 19.06. When applied to the external validation cohort, the model had an AUC of 0.9.ConclusionsUsing well-established clinicopathological prognostic variables, we developed and externally validated a robust multivariate prediction model for RFS in patients with resected MTC. The model demonstrates excellent predictive capability and may help guide decisions on patient management. The nomogram is freely available online at . Building upon the International Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma (MTC) Grading System (IMTCGS) developed in 2022, this study presents a prognostic nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival in MTC. The model was created using data from 300 MTC patients and was externally validated in a separate cohort. The nomogram is available at . image

引用

页码：947 / 959

页数：13

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