Projecting the impact of an ebola virus outbreak on endangered mountain gorillas

被引：4

作者：

Zimmerman, Dawn M. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Hardgrove, Emily ^{[4
]}

Sullivan, Sara ^{[5
]}

Mitchell, Stephanie ^{[6
,7
]}

Kambale, Eddy ^{[8
]}

Nziza, Julius ^{[8
]}

Ssebide, Benard ^{[8
]}

Shalukoma, Chantal ^{[9
]}

Cranfield, Mike ^{[8
]}

Pandit, Pranav S. ^{[10
]}

Troth, Sean P. ^{[11
]}

Callicrate, Taylor ^{[5
]}

Miller, Philip ^{[12
]}

Gilardi, Kirsten ^{[8
,13
]}

Lacy, Robert C. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Vet Initiat Endangered Wildlife, Bozeman, MT 59715 USA

[2] Natl Museum Nat Hist, Smithsonian Inst, Washington, DC 20560 USA

[3] Yale Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol Microbial Dis, New Haven, CT 06510 USA

[4] Virginia Tech, Virginia Maryland Reg Coll Vet Med, Blacksburg, VA USA

[5] Chicago Zool Soc, Species Conservat Toolkit Initiat, Brookfield, IL USA

[6] Smithsonian Natl Zool Pk, Ctr Species Survival, Washington, DC USA

[7] Conservat Biol Inst, Washington, DC USA

[8] Gorilla Doctors MGVP Inc, Davis, CA USA

[9] Inst Congolais Conservat Nat, Kinshasa, DEM REP CONGO

[10] Univ Calif Davis, Sch Vet Med, EpiCenter Dis Dynam, One Hlth Inst, Davis, CA USA

[11] Merck & Co Inc, West Point, PA USA

[12] IUCN SSC Conservat Planning Specialist Grp US, Apple Valley, MN USA

[13] Univ Calif Davis, Karen C Drayer Wildlife Hlth Ctr, Sch Vet Med, Davis, CA USA

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2023年 / 13卷 / 01期

关键词：

RESPIRATORY-DISEASE; PAN-TROGLODYTES; NATIONAL-PARK; GREAT APES; DECLINE; TRANSMISSION; DYNAMICS; METAPNEUMOVIRUS; VACCINATION; INFECTION;

D O I：

10.1038/s41598-023-32432-8

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Ebola virus is highly lethal for great apes. Estimated mortality rates up to 98% have reduced the global gorilla population by approximately one-third. As mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) are endangered, with just over 1000 individuals remaining in the world, an outbreak could decimate the population. Simulation modeling was used to evaluate the potential impact of an Ebola virus outbreak on the mountain gorilla population of the Virunga Massif. Findings indicate that estimated contact rates among gorilla groups are high enough to allow rapid spread of Ebola, with less than 20% of the population projected to survive at 100 days post-infection of just one gorilla. Despite increasing survival with vaccination, no modeled vaccination strategy prevented widespread infection. However, the model projected that survival rates greater than 50% could be achieved by vaccinating at least half the habituated gorillas within 3 weeks of the first infectious individual.

引用

页数：14

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