Analysis of risk factors for lateral lymph node metastasis in T1 stage papillary thyroid carcinoma: a retrospective cohort study

Background: The occurrence of cervical lymph node metastasis in T1 stage papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is frequently observed. Notably, lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) emerges as a critical risk factor adversely affecting prognostic outcomes in PTC. The primary aim of this investigation was to delineate the risk factors associated with LLNM in the initial stages of PTC. Methods: This retrospective analysis encompassed 3,332 patients diagnosed with T1 stage PTC without evident LLNM at the time of diagnosis. These individuals underwent primary surgical intervention at West China Hospital, Sichuan University between June 2017 and February 2023. The cohort was divided into two groups: patients manifesting LLNM and those without metastasis at the time of surgery. Additionally, T1 stage PTC patients were subdivided into T1a and T1b categories. Factors influencing LLNM were scrutinized through both univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: The incidence of LLNM was observed in 6.2% of the cohort (206 out of 3,332 patients). Univariate analysis revealed significant correlations between LLNM and male gender (P<0.001), tumor localization in the upper lobe (P<0.001), maximal volume of the primary tumor (P<0.001), largest tumor diameter (P<0.001), multifocality (P<0.001), and bilaterality (P<0.001), with the exception of age (P=0.788) and duration of active surveillance (AS) (P=0.978). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified male gender (P<0.001), upper lobe tumor location (P<0.001), maximal primary tumor volume (P<0.001), and multifocality (P<0.001) as independent predictors of LLNM. However, age categories (<= 55, >55 years), maximum tumor diameter, bilaterality, and surveillance duration did not exhibit a significant impact. Comparative analyses between T1a and T1b subgroups showed congruent univariate results but revealed differences in multivariate outcomes. In the T1a subgroup, gender, tumor location, and multifocality (all P<0.05) were associated with elevated LLNM risk. Conversely, in the T1b subgroup, tumor location, dimensions, and multifocality (all P<0.05) were significant predictors of LLNM risk, whereas gender (P=0.097) exerted a marginal influence. Conclusions: The investigation highlights several key risk factors for LLNM in T1 stage PTC patients, including gender, upper lobe tumor location, larger tumor size, and multifocality. Conversely, prolonged AS and younger age did not significantly elevate LLNM risk, suggesting the viability of AS as a strategic option in selected cases.