Lineage-level species distribution model to assess the impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of Boleophthalmus pectinirostris

Global climate change has profound impacts on the habitats of marine organisms, and predicting the habitat changes of species under climate change conditions is crucial for species sustainability. Boleophthalmus pectinirostris is an intertidal fish species that holds significant ecological and economic value. To better protect and manage its resources, this study aimed to predict its current potential distribution and habitat changes under different climate scenarios in the future. This study firstly quantified the hypervolume niches of the three lineages (AE1, AE2, and AES lineages) and compared the niche differentiation among them. Furthermore, this study constructed species-level and lineage-level species distribution models (SDMs) to assess the impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of B. pectinirostris. The result of the niche differentiation assessment showed that there was marked differentiation in niches among the three lineages. The responses of different lineages to environmental variables were different, suggesting that lineage-level models may provide more accurate prediction results. According to the model predictions, the AES may have greater resilience to climate change and may experience habitat expansion in the future, while the AE1 and the AE2 may face habitat loss in some regions. Climate change-driven shifts in oceanic conditions were anticipated to affect the distribution and community structure of marine organisms. This study assessed the impact of climate change on the suitable habitat range of three lineages of B. pectinirostris using SDMs. Consistent with previous studies, the results of our study indicated that lineage-level SDMs may be more reliable than species-level SDMs for species with population differentiation in terms of the accuracy of predictions. In addition, considering the vulnerability of the AE1 and AE2 lineages to climate change, conserving these two lineages should be given a higher priority. The results of this study will provide important information for the future management and conservation of this species.