The spatial dynamics of commercial burglary during the COVID-19 lockdown in San Francisco

Purpose This paper investigated the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home regulations on the spatial distribution of commercial burglary in San Francisco. Method Geocoded commercial burglary data for 2003-2021 from San Francisco were analyzed using the Andresen Spatial Point Pattern Test to examine potential spatial movement in commercial burglary. Results Concentrations of commercial burglary spatially shifted following the emergence of COVID-19 and the subsequent stay-at-home orders. Original hot spots experienced a relative decrease in commercial burglary, and crime spread out throughout the city. These spatial changes in commercial burglary appear to be related to variations in guardianship and criminal opportunity. Conclusion These findings suggest that the dramatic shifts in routine activities resulting from the COVID-19 policies could disrupt spatial burglary patterns, especially burglary clustering. Law enforcement should consider the spatial dynamics of commercial burglary, as well as land use heterogeneity, to effectively respond to crime during periods of social distancing and business shutdowns.