Quantification of risk dilution induced by correlation parameters in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

被引:1
作者
Kubo, Kotaro [1 ,3 ]
Tanaka, Yoichi [2 ]
Ishikawa, Jun [1 ]
机构
[1] Japan Atom Energy Agcy, Ibaraki, Japan
[2] Adv Simulat Technol Mech R&D Co Ltd, Tokyo, Japan
[3] Japan Atom Energy Agcy, 2-4 Shirakata, Ibaraki 3191195, Japan
关键词
Probabilistic risk assessment; dynamic PRA; nuclear power plant; risk dilution; risk analysis; RELIABILITY-ANALYSIS; EXPERIENCE; PRA; PSA;
D O I
10.1177/1748006X231167201
中图分类号
T [工业技术];
学科分类号
08 ;
摘要
Nuclear power plants are critical infrastructures that produce electricity. However, accidents in nuclear power plants can cause considerable consequences such as the release of radioactive materials. Therefore, appropriately managing their risk is necessary. Various nuclear regulatory agencies employ probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to effectively evaluate risks in nuclear power plants. Dynamic PRA has gained popularity because it allows for more realistic assessment by reducing the assumptions and engineering judgments related to time-dependent failure probability and/or human-action reliability in the conventional PRA methodology. However, removing all assumptions and engineering judgments is difficult; thus, the risk analyst, for example, the regulator, must understand their effects on the assessment results. This study focuses on "risk dilution," which emerges from the assumptions about uncertainty. Dynamic PRA of a station blackout sequence in a boiling-water reactor was performed using the dynamic PRA tool, namely, Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID) and the severe-accident code Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of Loss of Coolant, Emergency Core Cooling, and Severe Core Damage version 2 (THALES2), which altered the correlation parameters among the uncertainties of the events that occurred in sequence. The results demonstrated that the conditional core-damage probability and mean value of the core-damage time varied from 0.27 to 0.47 and from 7.1 to 8.7 h, respectively. When the dynamic PRA results are used for risk-informed decision making, the decision maker should adequately consider the effect of risk dilution.
引用
收藏
页码:464 / 474
页数:11
相关论文
共 59 条
[1]   Risk analysis virtual ENvironment for dynamic event tree-based analyses [J].
Alfonsi, Andrea ;
Mandelli, Diego ;
Parisi, Carlo ;
Rabiti, Cristian .
ANNALS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY, 2022, 165
[2]  
Apostolakis G., 1981, Reliability Engineering, V2, P135, DOI 10.1016/0143-8174(81)90019-6
[3]  
ASME, 2013, RASB2013 ASME ASMEAN
[4]  
Atomic Energy Society of Japan, 2014, AESJSCP0082013
[5]   RELTREE AND RISK SPECTRUM - EXPERIENCE FROM AND DEVELOPMENT OF PSA SOFTWARE FOR PCS [J].
BERG, U .
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, 1990, 30 (1-3) :323-338
[6]  
Bixler N., 2013, NUREGCR7110 US NUCL, VVol. 1
[7]  
Budnitz R.J., 2017, NUREGCR7237
[8]   The DYLAM approach for the dynamic reliability analysis of systems [J].
Cojazzi, G .
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, 1996, 52 (03) :279-296
[9]  
Deoss DL., 1989, MITNE287
[10]   Formalism and semantics of PyCATSHOO: A simulator of distributed stochastic hybrid automata [J].
Desgeorges, Loic ;
Piriou, Pierre-Yves ;
Lemattre, Thibault ;
Chraibi, Hassane .
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, 2021, 208