Enhancing stock market anomalies with machine learning

被引:6
作者
Azevedo, Vitor [1 ]
Hoegner, Christopher [2 ]
机构
[1] Tech Univ Kaiserslautern, Dept Business Studies & Econ, Gottlieb Daimler Str 42, D-67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany
[2] McKinsey & Co Inc, Sophienstr 26, D-80333 Munich, Germany
关键词
Anomalies; Machine learning models; Efficient market hypothesis; Asset pricing models; SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE; CROSS-SECTION; PRESIDENTIAL-ADDRESS; MOVEMENT DIRECTION; INFORMATION; EQUILIBRIUM; RISK; PORTFOLIOS; EFFICIENCY; RETURNS;
D O I
10.1007/s11156-022-01099-z
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
We examine the predictability of 299 capital market anomalies enhanced by 30 machine learning approaches and over 250 models in a dataset with more than 500 million firm-month anomaly observations. We find significant monthly (out-of-sample) returns of around 1.8-2.0%, and over 80% of the models yield returns equal to or larger than our linearly constructed baseline factor. For the best performing models, the risk-adjusted returns are significant across alternative asset pricing models, considering transaction costs with round-trip costs of up to 2% and including only anomalies after publication. Our results indicate that non-linear models can reveal market inefficiencies (mispricing) that are hard to conciliate with risk-based explanations.
引用
收藏
页码:195 / 230
页数:36
相关论文
共 98 条
  • [1] Deep Learning for Forecasting Stock Returns in the Cross-Section
    Abe, Masaya
    Nakayama, Hideki
    [J]. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY AND DATA MINING, PAKDD 2018, PT I, 2018, 10937 : 273 - 284
  • [2] State-of-the-art in artificial neural network applications: A survey
    Abiodun, Oludare Isaac
    Jantan, Aman
    Omolara, Abiodun Esther
    Dada, Kemi Victoria
    Mohamed, Nachaat AbdElatif
    Arshad, Humaira
    [J]. HELIYON, 2018, 4 (11)
  • [3] MLP ensembles improve long term prediction accuracy over single networks
    Adeodato, Paulo J. L.
    Arnaud, Adrian L.
    Vasconcelos, Germano C.
    Cunha, Rodrigo C. L. V.
    Monteiro, Domingos S. M. P.
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 2011, 27 (03) : 661 - 671
  • [4] [Anonymous], 2019, Gartner
  • [5] [Anonymous], 2020, The Journal of Financial Data Science, V2, P17
  • [6] Arnott R., 2019, J FINANCIAL DATA SCI, V1, P64, DOI [10.2139/ssrn.3275654, DOI 10.2139/SSRN.3275654, DOI 10.3905/JFDS.2019.1.064]
  • [7] Machine Learning vs. Economic Restrictions: Evidence from Stock Return Predictability
    Avramov, Doron
    Cheng, Si
    Metzker, Lior
    [J]. MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 2023, 69 (05) : 2587 - 2619
  • [8] Azevedo V, 2022, SSRN ELECT J, P1
  • [9] Baldi P., 2012, P ICML WORKSHOP UNSU, P37
  • [10] Machine Learning and Portfolio Optimization
    Ban, Gah-Yi
    El Karoui, Noureddine
    Lim, Andrew E. B.
    [J]. MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 2018, 64 (03) : 1136 - 1154