Spatio-temporal dynamics and socio-ecological determinants of ecosystem service interplays in Shandong Province's coastal region (2000-2020): Implications for environmental protection and sustainable ecosystem management

The sustainable management of multiple concurrent ecosystem services (ESs) requires a comprehensive understanding of the interconnections between various ESs. In this study, we develop spatial maps for six distinct ESs using a variety of models, and we quantify their trade-offs, synergies, and bundling patterns through spatial mapping and statistical methodologies. We further delve into the antagonistic and synergistic dynamics between different ESs within each Ecosystem Service Bundle (ESB), and employ GeoDetector to pinpoint the key drivers of each ES. Our findings reveal that: (1) The spatial distributions of ESs are heterogeneous, with most ESs exhibiting a downward trend except for GP and SC, which are on the rise. CS shows positive correlations with all other five ES indicators. HQ exhibits positive correlations with SC and RS, whereas negative correlations are observed between HQ-GP and WC-RS. Six ES pairs demonstrate a decline in synergistic relationships, but an increase in trade-off relationships. (2) We distinguish six types of ESBs, each differing in their combination and extent of ES provision. The trade-offs and synergies within these distinct ESBs display both commonalities and differences. In certain ESBs, supply services display synergistic relationships with other ESs. We leverage ES bundles as the foundation for studying spatial planning zoning, revealing a diversity in the interactions between different ES pairs and the driving factors of ES. Therefore, we establish the theoretical basis for formulating spatial planning on the interrelationships and drivers of ES under spatial and temporal changes. We anticipate that our findings will offer valuable scientific insight for the development of future ecological conservation and spatial planning strategies in the region.