Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Using Wastewater Surveillance Data, Denmark, October 2021-June 2022

被引：16

作者：

McManus, Oliver ^{[1
,2
]}

Christiansen, Lasse Engbo ^{[2
]}

Nauta, Maarten ^{[2
]}

Krogsgaard, Lene Wulff ^{[2
]}

Bahrenscheer, Naja Stolberg ^{[2
]}

von Kappelgaard, Lene ^{[2
]}

Christiansen, Tobias ^{[2
]}

Hansen, Mikkel ^{[2
]}

Hansen, Nicco Claudio ^{[2
]}

Kahler, Jonas ^{[2
]}

Rasmussen, Anders ^{[2
]}

Richter, Stine Raith ^{[2
]}

Rasmussen, Lasse Dam ^{[2
]}

Franck, Kristina Traeholt ^{[2
]}

Ethelberg, Steen ^{[2
,3
,4
]}

机构：

[1] European Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, Solna, Sweden

[2] Statens Serum Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark

[3] Univ Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

[4] Statens Serum Inst, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol & Prevent, Artillerivej 5, DK-2300 Copenhagen, Denmark

来源：

EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES | 2023年 / 29卷 / 08期

关键词：

D O I：

10.3201/eid2908.221634

中图分类号：

R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];

学科分类号：

100102 ;

摘要：

Analysis of wastewater is used in many settings for sur-veillance of SARS-CoV-2, but it remains unclear how well wastewater testing results reflect incidence. Den-mark has had an extensive wastewater analysis system that conducts 3 weekly tests in & AP;200 sites and has 85% population coverage; the country also offers free SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests to all residents. Using time series analysis for modeling, we found that wastewater data, combined with information on circulating variants and the number of human tests performed, closely fitted the incidence curve of persons testing positive. The results were consistent at a regional level and among a sub -population of frequently tested healthcare personnel. We used wastewater analysis data to estimate incidence af-ter testing was reduced to a minimum after March 2022. These results imply that data from a large-scale waste-water surveillance system can serve as a good proxy for COVID-19 incidence and for epidemic control.

引用

页码：1589 / 1597

页数：9

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