Climatic variation along the distributional range in Cuban Anolis lizards: Species and ecomorphs under future scenarios of climate change

Geographical ranges and physiological tolerances of species are correlated, and it can be expected that widespread species encounter higher climatic variation across their distributions than restricted species. Widespread species should consequently be more tolerant to extreme or variable weather conditions, and may have the ability to better conserve their current geographical ranges under future climate change scenarios. We tested this hypothesis by studying the relationship between the climatic variation experienced by restricted and widespread Anolis lizards from different ecomorphs and regions of Cuba and the distributional shifts induced by climate change. We selected seven bioclimatic variables from WorldClim to characterize the realized climatic niche of 12 Cuban anoles, where the coefficients of variation of each variable were taken as a measure of climatic variation. We used niche modeling to predict changes in suitable habitats under future climatic scenarios. We found that species from Eastern Cuba occupy areas with the highest climatic variation, likely related to the topography of the region. Crown giant anoles experienced habitats with lower climatic variation in comparison with species from other ecomorphs, which together with their tree canopy habitat and large body size may represent a disadvantage to face changing climates. All species will experience a severe decrease in their habitat suitability, with the Western species being predicted to lose a higher proportion of suitable habitat. Combining niche modeling with physiological data would better predict the effects of climate change on Cuban lizards and might allow taking management actions for species and habitats to mitigate the possible negative impacts of this phenomenon.