Momentum trading in the NFL gambling market

被引：1

作者：

Nofsinger, John R. ^{[1
,2
]}

Shank, Corey A. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Alaska Anchorage, Coll Business & Publ Policy, Finance, Anchorage, AK 99508 USA

[2] Univ Alaska Anchorage, Coll Business & Publ Policy, Int Finance, Anchorage, AK 99508 USA

[3] Miami Univ, Farmer Sch Business, Finance, Oxford, OH USA

来源：

FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS | 2023年 / 55卷

关键词：

Market efficiency; Momentum; Sports betting;

D O I：

10.1016/j.frl.2023.104006

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

We explore the impact of momentum trading in the NFL betting market at the aggregate weekly level. Bettors prefer to bet on momentum rather than mean reversion in the totals market. The effect is strongest when they bet that the total points scored by both teams will be under the betting line set by bookmakers, especially when the under bet won 60% or more of the games in the previous 1, 2, and 3 weeks. Momentum trading by betting the score will be over the betting line loses money, while trading in the under makes a profit.

引用

页数：5

共 16 条

[1] Individual Reaction to Past Performance Sequences: Evidence from a Real Marketplace [J].

Andrikogiannopoulou, Angie ;

Papakonstantinou, Filippos .

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 2018, 64 (04) :1957-1973

[2] Identifying investor sentiment from price paths: The case of football betting [J].

Avery, C ;

Chevalier, J .

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS, 1999, 72 (04) :493-521

[3] Implicit incentives and reputational herding by hedge fund managers [J].

Boyson, Nicole M. .

JOURNAL OF EMPIRICAL FINANCE, 2010, 17 (03) :283-299

[4] Behavioral biases in the NFL gambling market: Overreaction to news and the recency bias [J].

Durand, Robert B. ;

Patterson, Fernando M. ;

Shank, Corey A. .

JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL AND EXPERIMENTAL FINANCE, 2021, 31

[5]

Grinblatt M, 1995, AM ECON REV, V85, P1088

[6] RETURNS TO BUYING WINNERS AND SELLING LOSERS - IMPLICATIONS FOR STOCK-MARKET EFFICIENCY [J].

JEGADEESH, N ;

TITMAN, S .

JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 1993, 48 (01) :65-91

[7] Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets? [J].

Levitt, SD .

ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 2004, 114 (495) :223-246

[8] High stakes, experts, and recency bias: evidence from a sports gambling contest [J].

Metz, Neil ;

Jog, Chintamani .

APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS, 2023, 30 (18) :2525-2529

[9] Asset Pricing and Sports Betting [J].

Moskowitz, Tobias J. .

JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 2021, 76 (06) :3153-3209

[10] Herding and feedback trading by institutional and individual investors [J].

Nofsinger, JR ;

Sias, RW .

JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 1999, 54 (06) :2263-2295

← 1 2 →