Trade-offs under pressure? Development of urban green space under economic growth and governance

Urban green space (UGS) is susceptible to shocks from multiple sources, including the economy and governance. It is now a global policy challenge to ensure the sustainability and livability of cities. Nevertheless, available studies have reached contradictory conclusions regarding the economic impact on UGS. Using statistical data, empirical studies in the Chinese context failed to differentiate between built-up areas and municipalities and neglected data matching within the study area. To address these gaps, this study explored the relationship between the economy and UGS at various quantiles by constructing unconditional quantile regression (UQR) models using panel data from 283 Chinese cities (2001-2019). The relationship between economic growth and the total area of UGS in the municipal zone (ugs_area) and UGS coverage of built-up areas (ugs_rate) was generally positive and statistically significant, according to the analysis. Furthermore, the study observed heterogeneity in the relationship between the economy and ugs_area and ugs_rate across different quantiles, indicating a growing presence of UGS appearing in the periphery of built-up areas. Cities strived to increase ugs_area and ugs_rate to meet the National Garden City (NGC) standards. After NGC designation, ugs_area and ugs_rate decreased significantly. Moreover, the positive correlation coefficient between the economy and UGS in provincial capital cities was considerably greater than in non-provincial capital cities. This study contributes to UGS research by revealing the nonlinear impact of driving factors. In addition to distinguishing between UGS in municipal districts and those specifically in built-up areas, this study quantifies the impact of governance variables. The study provides a valuable resource for planning UGS in China and promoting harmonious integration of economic growth, governance, and UGS in rapidly developing cities.