Nonlinear time-series forecasts for decision support: short-term demand for ICU beds in Santiago, Chile, during the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic

被引：5
作者：
Quiroga, Bernardo F. [1 ]
Alberto Vasquez, Cristian [1 ]
Ignacia Vicuna, Maria [1 ]
机构：
[1] Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Sch Management, Av Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, RM, Chile
来源：
INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS IN OPERATIONAL RESEARCH | 2023年 / 30卷 / 06期
关键词：
COVID-19; modeling biological systems; infectious disease dynamics; time series forecasting; RICHARDS MODEL;
D O I：
10.1111/itor.13222
中图分类号：
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号：
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要：
In Chile, due to the explosive increase of new Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases during the first part of 2021, the ability of health services to accommodate new incoming cases was jeopardized. It has become necessary to be able to manage intensive care unit (ICU) capacity, and for this purpose, monitoring both the evolution of new cases and the demand for ICU beds has become urgent. This paper presents short-term forecast models for the number of new cases and the number of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs in the Metropolitan Region in Chile.
引用
收藏
页码：3400 / 3428
页数：29
相关论文
共 50 条
[41]   Decreased human respiratory syncytial virus activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: an ecological time-series analysis [J].
Keita Wagatsuma ;
Iain S. Koolhof ;
Yugo Shobugawa ;
Reiko Saito .
BMC Infectious Diseases, 21
[42]   Estimating time-series changes in social sentiment @Twitter in U.S. metropolises during the COVID-19 pandemic [J].
Ryuichi Saito ;
Shinichiro Haruyama .
Journal of Computational Social Science, 2023, 6 :359-388
[43]   Decreased human respiratory syncytial virus activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: an ecological time-series analysis [J].
Wagatsuma, Keita ;
Koolhof, Iain S. ;
Shobugawa, Yugo ;
Saito, Reiko .
BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2021, 21 (01)
[44]   Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the association between short-term exposure to carbon monoxide and COVID-19 incidence: A multistage time-series study in the continental United States [J].
Chen, Jia ;
Lin, Ping ;
Tang, Ping ;
Zhu, Dajian ;
Ma, Rong ;
Meng, Juan .
HELIYON, 2024, 10 (13)
[45]   TIME-SERIES GROUND SUBSIDENCE IN BALI BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC MONITORED BY PS-INSAR METHOD [J].
Parwata, I. Nyoman Sudi ;
Osawa, Takahiro .
2022 IEEE INTERNATIONAL GEOSCIENCE AND REMOTE SENSING SYMPOSIUM (IGARSS 2022), 2022, :1636-1639
[46]   Dynamic monitoring revealed a slightly prolonged waiting time for total gastrectomy during the COVID-19 pandemic without increasing the short-term complications [J].
Zheng, Xiaohao ;
Ding, Shikang ;
Wu, Ming ;
Sun, Chunyang ;
Wu, Yunzi ;
Wang, Shenghui ;
Du, Yongxing ;
Yang, Lin ;
Xue, Liyan ;
Wang, Bingzhi ;
Wang, Chengfeng ;
Cui, Wei ;
Xie, Yibin .
FRONTIERS IN ONCOLOGY, 2022, 12
[47]   A Parallel Pandemic: Increased Firearm Injuries at Five Northern California Trauma Centers During the COVID-19 Pandemic An Interrupted Time-series Analysis [J].
Matthay, Zachary A. ;
Callcut, Rachael A. ;
Kwok, Amy M. ;
Aarabi, Shahram ;
Forrester, Joseph D. ;
Kornblith, Lucy Z. .
ANNALS OF SURGERY, 2022, 275 (05) :E725-E727
[48]   Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular heart disease medication use: time-series analysis of England's prescription data during the COVID-19 pandemic (January 2019 to October 2020) [J].
Barrett, Ravina ;
Hodgkinson, James .
THERAPEUTIC ADVANCES IN CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE, 2022, 16
[49]   Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory for Analysis of Public Opinion Sentiment on Government Policy During the COVID-19 Pandemic [J].
Yulita, Intan Nurma ;
Auza'i, Ahmad Faaiz Al- ;
Prabuwono, Anton Satria ;
Sholahuddin, Asep ;
Ardiansyah, Firman ;
Sarathan, Indra ;
Djuyandi, Yusa .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADVANCED COMPUTER SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS, 2023, 14 (11) :877-885
[50]   Cotton versus medical face mask influence on skin characteristics during COVID-19 pandemic: A short-term study [J].
Tasic-Kostov, Marija ;
Martinovic, Milica ;
Ilic, Dusan ;
Cvetkovic, Maja .
SKIN RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY, 2022, 28 (01) :66-70
12345