Nonlinear time-series forecasts for decision support: short-term demand for ICU beds in Santiago, Chile, during the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic

被引：5

作者：

Quiroga, Bernardo F. ^{[1
]}

Alberto Vasquez, Cristian ^{[1
]}

Ignacia Vicuna, Maria ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Sch Management, Av Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, RM, Chile

来源：

INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS IN OPERATIONAL RESEARCH | 2023年 / 30卷 / 06期

关键词：

COVID-19; modeling biological systems; infectious disease dynamics; time series forecasting; RICHARDS MODEL;

D O I：

10.1111/itor.13222

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

In Chile, due to the explosive increase of new Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases during the first part of 2021, the ability of health services to accommodate new incoming cases was jeopardized. It has become necessary to be able to manage intensive care unit (ICU) capacity, and for this purpose, monitoring both the evolution of new cases and the demand for ICU beds has become urgent. This paper presents short-term forecast models for the number of new cases and the number of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs in the Metropolitan Region in Chile.

引用

页码：3400 / 3428

页数：29

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