LUCC-based analysis of ecosystem service value drivers in the South-North Water Transfer Central Line recharge area

A study on the evolution of ecosystem service values (ESV) in the South-North Water Transfer Central Line Water Replenishment Area was conducted to reveal the mechanism of ESV evolution in the study area, which is of great value to regional ecological environmental protection. Taking Anyang County as the research object, based on LUCC (land use and land cover change) and GIS technology, the spatial and temporal changes in land use change and ESV in Anyang County from 2008 to 2021 were quantitatively assessed using the equivalent factor method, revealing the evolutionary characteristics of ESV in Anyang County. The results show that the total value of ecosystem services in the study area showed an overall upward trend from 2008 to 2021, with a cumulative increase of RMB 834 million, and the increase in water surface area was the main driver of its ESV increase; the spatial pattern of ESV in Anyang County remained basically stable from 2008 to 2021, with a general trend of high in the west and low in the east. The ESV of hydrological regulation in the study area increased from 1.147 billion yuan to 1.613 billion yuan in 2008-2021, which contributed the most to the change of total ESV. Forest land and water area have great influence on the change of ESV in the study area, and are sensitive factors of ESV change. Combined with the results of the 2025 simulation, the value of ecosystem services in Anyang County will rise further in the future.