Post-buckling Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Composite Stiffened Plates Based on Adaptive Kriging Method

Based on the active learning Kriging (ALK) model and the Hashin failure criterion, this paper proposes a new reliability evaluation model for composite stiffened panels, and conducts a reliability analysis on the ultimate bearing capacity. In addition, this paper studies the importance ranking of input variables. By comparing the calculation results of the reliability model proposed in this paper with those of the Monte Carlo method, the accuracy and efficiency of the ALK model are verified by case studies. Finally, the effects of longitudinal elastic modulus and fiber-direction tensile strength on post-buckling failure probability are discussed, which provides significant reference and guidance for the optimization and design of composite stiffened plates.