The dynamics of monkeypox disease under Ψ-Hilfer fractional derivative: Application to real data

被引:3
作者
Al-Hdaibat, Bashir [1 ]
Meetei, Mutum Zico [2 ]
Ahmad, Irfan [3 ]
Althobaiti, Nesreen [4 ]
Safi, Mohammad A. [1 ]
Khan, Muhammad Altaf [5 ]
Riaz, Muhammad Bilal [6 ,7 ]
机构
[1] Hashemite Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Math, POB 330127, Zarqa 13133, Jordan
[2] Jazan Univ, Coll Sci, Dept Math, Jazan 45142, Saudi Arabia
[3] King Khalid Univ, Coll Appl Med Sci, Dept Clin Lab Sci, Abha 61421, Saudi Arabia
[4] Taif Univ, Coll Sci, Dept Math & Stat, POB 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia
[5] Univ Free State, Fac Nat & Agr Sci, ZA-9300 Bleomfontein, South Africa
[6] VSB Tech Univ Ostrava, IT4Innovations, Ostrava 70800, Czech Republic
[7] Lebanese Amer Univ, Dept Comp Sci & Math, Byblos, Lebanon
关键词
USA data; Psi-Hilfer derivative; Stability; Numerical simulation;
D O I
10.1016/j.rinp.2023.107127
中图分类号
T [工业技术];
学科分类号
08 ;
摘要
The mathematical model for monkeypox infection using the Psi-Hilfer fractional derivative is presented in this study. The integer order formulation is extended to the fractional order system by employing the Psi- Hilfer fractional derivative. The fractional order model analysis is provided. We investigate the model's local asymptotical stability when R-0 < 1. When R-0 > 1, the global asymptotical stability result is displayed. We parameterize the model using recently reported cases of monkeypox infection in the United States. We calculated the basic reproduction using the estimated data and found it to be R-0 approximate to 0.7121. We investigate the sensitivity of the monkeypox infection model and find the parameters that are sensitive R-0. In general, we offer a numerical approach, and then for the monkeypox model, we present detailed findings. Some graphical outcomes for disease control in the United States are shown.
引用
收藏
页数:13
相关论文
共 33 条
[1]   Mathematical modeling, forecasting, and optimal control of typhoid fever transmission dynamics [J].
Abboubakar, Hamadjam ;
Racke, Reinhard .
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, 2021, 149
[2]   Backward bifurcation and control in transmission dynamics of arboviral diseases [J].
Abboubakar, Hamadjam ;
Kamgang, Jean Claude ;
Tieudjo, Daniel .
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES, 2016, 278 :100-129
[3]  
Abu Somma Samuel, 2019, LIFE J SCI, V21, P195, DOI [10.4314/ijs.v21i1.17, DOI 10.4314/IJS.V21I1.17]
[4]   Monkeypox Virus in Nigeria: Infection Biology, Epidemiology, and Evolution [J].
Alakunle, Emmanuel ;
Moens, Ugo ;
Nchinda, Godwin ;
Okeke, Malachy Ifeanyi .
VIRUSES-BASEL, 2020, 12 (11)
[5]   Mathematical Modeling and backward bifurcation in monkeypox disease under real observed data [J].
Allehiany, F. M. ;
DarAssi, Mahmoud H. ;
Ahmad, Irfan ;
Khan, Muhammad Altaf ;
Tag-eldin, Elsayed M. .
RESULTS IN PHYSICS, 2023, 50
[6]  
Amin Jajarmi, 2022, J Comput Appl Math, V415
[7]  
[Anonymous], 2022, Monkeypox signs and symptoms
[8]  
[Anonymous], U.S. declares monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency
[9]  
[Anonymous], 2023, American life expectancy is now at its lowest in nearly two decades
[10]  
[Anonymous], Monkeypox in the U.S., Centers for Disease Control and Prevention