A Framework to Quantify Riverine Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen Exports under Changing Land-Use Patterns and Hydrologic Regimes

Riverine dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), when elevated by human activities (e.g., land-use change), can accelerate the nitrogen cycle and downstream dispersal. However, estimating DIN export coefficients for individual land-use types can be complex due to mosaic land-use patterns and interactions between fertilizers and hydrological processes. We propose a framework that integrates an empirical model, a moving-window method, and an elasticity method to quantify seasonal DIN export coefficients for each land use in the Shixi Creek catchment, southeast China. Our model showed good agreement with field observations according to root mean square error and a normalized objective function. The export coefficients of farmland and forest were the highest (9.16 mg L-1) and lowest (2.91 mg L-1) ones, resulting in annual DIN exports, respectively, for farmland and forests of 1951 kg km-2 yr-1 and 619 kg km-2 yr-1, respectively. Urbanization was a dominant factor influencing DIN export; the export coefficient of built-up areas showed the highest elasticity and highest uncertainty, with abrupt fluctuations from dry to wet years. Our framework revealed the complex role of built-up areas in nitrogen export. Our results can shed light on how to improve riverine N management in a catchment by considering the interactive effects of climate and land use.