Changing rural livelihood activities may reduce the effectiveness of ecological restoration projects

Understanding the mechanisms of ecological restoration project (ERP) effectiveness is essential for designing, implementing, and sustainably managing ERPs. It is worth noting that ERPs and parallel policies always lead to an interplay between socioeconomic systems and the ecosystem, and such processes can also have a significant impact on ERP effectiveness in addition to local environmental conditions. However, few studies have focused on this mechanism. Here, the agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China, which is a key area containing several national ERPs, was used to analyze the above problem from the perspective of rural livelihood activities. Specifically, we identified changes in rural livelihood activities in the context of ERPs and analyzed the impact of changing activities' feedback effect on ERP effectiveness. The results showed that in addition to the afforestation and local environmental factors, changing rural livelihood activities significantly affected the ERP effectiveness through the direct or indirect pathway. Based on our results, we suggest policymakers need an integrated and systemic perspective and focus on the dynamic changes in rural livelihood activities in the context of ERPs and parallel policies. Our study helps to elucidate the complex mechanisms of ERP effectiveness with a social-ecological perspective, thereby providing new insights and a theoretical basis for improving ERP effectiveness in China and around the world.