State dependence of CO2 forcing and its implications for climate sensitivity

被引:34
作者
He, Haozhe [1 ,5 ]
Kramer, Ryan J. [2 ,3 ,6 ]
Soden, Brian J. [1 ]
Jeevanjee, Nadir [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine Atmospher & Earth Sci, Miami, FL 33149 USA
[2] Univ Maryland, Goddard Earth Sci Technol & Res 2, Baltimore, MD USA
[3] NASA Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Climate & Radiat Lab, Greenbelt, MD USA
[4] Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA
[5] Princeton Univ, High Meadows Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ USA
[6] Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA
基金
美国海洋和大气管理局; 美国国家航空航天局;
关键词
MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN; UNCERTAINTIES; CMIP5;
D O I
10.1126/science.abq6872
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
When evaluating the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) changes on Earth's climate, it is widely assumed that instantaneous radiative forcing from a doubling of a given CO2 concentration (IRF2xCO2) is constant and that variances in climate sensitivity arise from differences in radiative feedbacks or dependence of these feedbacks on the climatological base state. Here, we show that the IRF2xCO2 is not constant, but rather depends on the climatological base state, increasing by about 25% for every doubling of CO2, and has increased by about 10% since the preindustrial era primarily due to the cooling within the upper stratosphere, implying a proportionate increase in climate sensitivity. This base-state dependence also explains about half of the intermodel spread in IRF2xCO2, a problem that has persisted among climate models for nearly three decades.
引用
收藏
页码:1051 / 1056
页数:6
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