Serum Potassium and Risk of Death or Kidney Replacement Therapy in Older People With CKD Stages 4-5: Eight-Year Follow-up

Rationale & Objective: Hypokalemia may accelerate kidney function decline. Both hypo- and hyperkalemia can cause sudden cardiac death. However, little is known about the relationship between serum potassium and death or the occurrence of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy (KRT). We investigated this relationship in older people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 4-5. Study Design: Prospective observational cohort study. Setting & Participants: We followed 1,714 patients (>= 65 years old) from the European Quality (EQUAL) study for 8 years from their first estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 20 mL/min/1.73 m(2) measurement. Exposure: Serum potassium was measured every 3 to 6 months and categorized as <= 3.5, >3.5-<= 4.0, >4.0-<= 4.5, >4.5-<= 5.0 (reference), >5.0-<= 5.5, >5.5-<= 6.0, and >6.0 mmol/L. Outcome: The combined outcome death before KRT or start of KRT. Analytical Approach: The association between categorical and continuous time-varying potassium and death or KRT start was examined using Cox proportional hazards and restricted cubic spline analyses, adjusted for age, sex, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibition, eGFR, and subjective global assessment (SGA). Results: At baseline, 66% of participants were men, 42% had diabetes, 47% cardiovascular disease, and 54% used RAAS inhibitors. Their mean age was 76 +/- 7 (SD) years, mean eGFR was 17 +/- 5 (SD) mL/min/1.73 m(2), and mean SGA was 6.0 +/- 1.0 (SD). Over 8 years, 414 (24%) died before starting KRT, and 595 (35%) started KRT. Adjusted hazard ratios for death or KRT according to the potassium categories were 1.6 (95% CI, 1.1-2.3), 1.4 (95% CI, 1.1-1.7), 1.1 (95% CI, 1.0-1.4), 1 (reference), 1.1 (95% CI, 0.9-1.4), 1.8 (95% CI, 1.4-2.3), and 2.2 (95% CI, 1.5-3.3). Hazard ratios were lowest at a potassium of about 4.9 mmol/L. Limitations: Shorter intervals between potassium measurements would have allowed for more precise estimations. Conclusions: We observed a U-shaped relationship between serum potassium and death or KRT start among patients with incident CKD 4- 5, with a nadir risk at a potassium level of 4.9 mmol/L. These findings underscore the potential importance of preventing both high and low potassium in patients with CKD 4-5.