Prevalence of geographic atrophy in Nordic countries and number of patients potentially eligible for intravitreal complement inhibitor treatment: A systematic review with meta-analyses and forecasting study

We systematically reviewed the literature on the prevalence of geographic atrophy (GA) in Nordic populations, conducted meta-analyses on age-stratified estimates, and calculated current and future number of patients and those potentially eligible for intravitreal complement inhibitor treatment. We followed the PRISMA guidelines, and our protocol was registered in PROSPERO. Ten databases were searched on 22 April 2023 for population-based studies of GA prevalence. Based on clinical descriptive analyses of GA and eligibility criteria of the phase III studies for intravitreal pegcetacoplan (complement C3 and C3b inhibitor), we were able to calculate the proportion of patients with GA potentially eligible for therapy. Finally, we extracted population data for Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden) from Eurostat, applied prevalence statistics to the extracted census and forecasting data to estimate the number of patients with GA, and then applied the proportion eligible for intravitreal pegcetacoplan therapy. We identified six studies with a total of 10 159 individuals. Prevalence of GA was estimated to 0.4% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.2%-0.8%), 1.5% (95% CI: 0.7%-2.6%), and 7.6% (95% CI: 4.6%-11.3%) for individuals aged 60-69, 70-79, and 80+ years, respectively. In Nordic countries, we estimate a total of 166 307 individuals with GA in 2023, increasing to 277 893 in 2050. Of these, 90 803 individuals in 2023, increasing to 151 730 in 2050, are potentially eligible for intravitreal complement inhibitor treatment. Considering these large numbers, our study highlights the importance of this topic in the coming years and its potential to significantly impact our clinical practice, organization, and staffing.