Current Account Imbalances after Bretton Woods

This paper uses principal components analysis to describe the evolution of current account imbalances in a sample of 18 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries from 1950 to 2020. The analysis shows, using only statistical methods, how two groups of countries formed in the 1980s. There is the current account surplus group including countries in Northern Europe, Japan and Switzerland and then the deficit group including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and several countries in Southern Europe. The divergence cannot be attributed to divergence in fiscal and monetary policy. Instead, there is some support for the thesis of Robert Aliber set out in another paper in this issue that capital flows between countries affect exchange rates, asset prices and the current account. The paper builds on two earlier papers in this journal by the same author, one showing how countries that have experienced a financial crisis tend to subsequently develop current account surpluses and the other showing how surpluses and deficits caused by capital flows affect the domestic real economy.