Assessing the climate vulnerability of mountain agriculture: a case study of Haramosh Valley in Central Karakoram, Pakistan

In mountain regions, the agriculture systems are particularly vulnerable to the effect of climate change due to their fragile environments and limited cultivable lands. The existing body of literature on the mountain agriculture systems in northern Pakistan lacks structured data on several factors that make these systems susceptible to climate variability. Pakistan is an agricultural-based economy, accordingly, the mountainous communities in northern Pakistan are highly dependent on agro-pastoral livelihoods. With changes in the climate, highland habitats become more fragile and exposed to socio-ecological risks. Therefore, to understand the climate vulnerability of mountain agriculture, this study aims to understand the multidimensional aspects of vulnerability in the Haramosh Valley in Central Karakoram Mountains of Pakistan. The study employed a Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) approach using five dimensions of climate vulnerability of agriculture systems, i.e., social, economic, institutional, infrastructure, and biophysical. The indices were calculated using seven indicators under each dimension through Weighted Average Index (WAI) method (0 = low vulnerability to 1 = high vulnerability). Information about vulnerability indicators was collected through a household (HH) survey using a semi-structured questionnaire, (n = 120 HH). The results show that Haramosh Valley is a cross section of numerous biophysical, socio-cultural, and ecological conditions. It is revealed that the agriculture system of the study area was at medium-high level of vulnerability (WAI = 0.67). However, other dimensions significantly differed across the households, thus determining the varying climate vulnerability of agriculture systems in mountainous regions. Socially, the area was resilient (WAI = 0.44) but institutional (WAI = 0.94) and infrastructural (WAI = 0.69) parameters show the study area was vulnerable to climate change. It is suggested that while developing policies, preparing for adaptation, and putting sustainable agriculture techniques into reality, these factors should be taken carefully.