The range dynamics of a cactophilic Drosophila species under climate change scenarios

In this study, we evaluated the historical demography of a cactophilic Drosophila species (Drosophila gouveai) based on previously published mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) data ecological niche modelling. We particularly aimed to test the effect of climate change on the historical demography of D. gouveai during the late Quaternary and the future of the species. For this, we also modelled its host cacti species in its distribution range to reach a more robust biogeographic conclusion. Our results indicate that D. gouveai was as sensitive to climate change as its hosts were. This species experienced an almost complete range shift, range contraction after the Last Interglacial (130,000 years ago) but before the Last Glacial Maximum (22,000 years ago). Afterwards, its range contracted in the Present, and this species will experience complete range shift once again in the Future (based on 2050 and 2070 projections) as its hosts will do. In conclusion, the Last Interglacial played a significant role in shaping the demographic history of D. gouveai and its hosts, and this species will have a different distribution or will be extinct in the near future.