COVID-19 and Grade Inflation: Analysis of Undergraduate GPAs During the Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic required adaptation to a new learning environment creating challenges for students and instructors. A reduction in student-teacher contact and the lack of supervision should have led to a decline in students' academic performance. Nonetheless, studies report increases in grades during the pandemic. Yet, limited information is available regarding the persistence of this impact. This study utilizes a hierarchical mixed effect model to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on university grades. Using unique class-level data containing chronological variables and institutional, instructor, and student characteristics, spanning Fall 2010 to Spring 2021 of 7,852 undergraduate classes, it is shown class average grade point averages (GPAs) in the College of Agriculture at Texas A&M University increased for the three semesters most impacted by COVID-19. Average class GPAs increased by 0.22 points in Spring 2020 because of COVID-19 and then approximately 0.18 points in the subsequent next two semesters. The negative effect of class size decreased during COVID-19, implying online classes have different size effects than traditional classes. Additionally, the positive effect of SAT scores on grades decreased. One implication of this study is that COVID-19 may not only have a direct, significant, impact on GPAs but may also indirectly affect GPAs through altering the effects of variables on GPAs. The causal mechanisms by which the changes occurred are an area for further research.JEL Codes: I21, I29