Measuring security development in information technologies: A scientometric framework using arXiv e-prints

被引：2

作者：

David, Dimitri Percia ^{[1
,2
,5
]}

Marechal, Loic ^{[2
,4
]}

Lacube, William ^{[2
]}

Gillard, Sebastien ^{[1
,3
]}

Tsesmelis, Michael ^{[2
]}

Maillart, Thomas ^{[1
]}

Mermoud, Alain ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Geneva, Informat Sci Inst, Geneva Sch Econ & Management, 40 Blvd Pont Arve, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland

[2] Armasuisse Sci & Technol, Cyber Def Campus, Feuerwerkstr 39, CH-3602 Thun, Switzerland

[3] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Mil Acad, Chair Def Econ, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland

[4] Univ Lausanne, Dept Informat Syst, HEC Lausanne, UNIL Chamberonne, Internef Bldg, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland

[5] Univ Appl Sci Western Switzerland HES SO Valais Wa, Inst Entrepreneurship & Management, Techno Pole 1, CH-3960 Le Foyer, Sierre, Switzerland

来源：

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE | 2023年 / 188卷

关键词：

Technology mining; Technology management; Security economics; Time-series econometrics; Natural language processing; Opinion mining; SCIENCE-AND-TECHNOLOGY; FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY; SENTIMENT ANALYSIS; NETWORK ANALYSIS; CROSS-SECTION; OPINION; PATENTS; TRENDS; POLICY; RISK;

D O I：

10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122316

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We study security-development patterns in computer-science technologies through (i) the security attention among technologies, (ii) the relation between technological change and security development, and (iii) the effect of opinion on security development. We perform a scientometric analysis on arXiv e-prints (n = 340, 569) related to 20 computer-science technology categories. Our contribution is threefold. First, we characterize both processes of technological change and security development: while most technologies follow a logistic-growth process, the security development follows an AR(1) process or a random walk with positive drift. Moreover, over the lifetime of computer-science technologies, the security development surges at a late stage. Second, we document no relation between the technological change and the security development. Third, we identify an inverse relation between security attention and experts' opinion. Along with these results, we introduce new methods for modeling security-development patterns for broader sets of technologies.

引用

页数：18

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