Can domestic wheat farming meet the climate change-induced challenges of national food security in Uzbekistan?

被引：1

作者：

Babadjanova, Mashkhura ^{[1
,2
]}

Bobojonov, Ihtiyor ^{[2
]}

Bekchanov, Maksud ^{[3
,4
,5
]}

Kuhn, Lena ^{[2
]}

Glauben, Thomas ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Tashkent State Agrarian Univ, Int Agr Econ, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

[2] Leibniz Inst Agr Dev Transit Econ IAMO, Dept Agr Markets, Halle An Der Saale, Germany

[3] Ca Foscari Univ Venice, Dept Environm Sci Informat & Stat DAIS, Venice, Italy

[4] Euro Mediterranean Ctr Climate Change CMCC, Econ Impacts Climate Change & Policy ECIP Div, Venice, Italy

[5] RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm EIEE, Milan, Italy

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT | 2024年 / 40卷 / 03期

关键词：

Climate change impact; food security; irrigated wheat farming; crop yield simulation; soil salinity; Uzbekistan; SOIL-SALINITY; CENTRAL-ASIA; WATER-USE; IMPACTS; IRRIGATION; INCOME; MODEL; CROP;

D O I：

10.1080/07900627.2023.2290523

中图分类号：

TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];

学科分类号：

081501 ;

摘要：

This study is the first to develop food supply and demand projections over the 21st century for Uzbekistan by considering the combined effects of climate change and soil salinization. The study results suggest that rising summer temperatures and soil salinity will considerably reduce wheat production. Projections indicate that a large wheat supply-demand gap will emerge in the midterm, particularly under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario. For the two more pessimistic scenarios, supply losses of about 24-29% are expected by the end of the century. Supply-demand gaps of up to 2.7 million tons of wheat would pose serious challenges to national food security.

引用

页码：448 / 462

页数：15

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