A risk-based decision framework for policy analysis of societal pandemic effects

被引:0
|
作者
Danielson, Mats [1 ,2 ]
Ekenberg, Love [1 ,2 ]
Komendantova, Nadejda [2 ]
Mihai, Adriana [2 ]
机构
[1] Stockholm Univ, Dept Comp & Syst Sci, Stockholm, Sweden
[2] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Adv Syst Anal ASA, Laxenburg, Austria
关键词
policy formation; policy analysis; decision analysis; MCDM; imprecise probabilities;
D O I
10.3389/fpubh.2023.1064554
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
IntroductionIn this article, we summarize our findings from an EU-supported project for policy analyses applied to pandemics such as Covid-19 (with the potential to be applied as well to other, similar hazards) while considering various mitigation levels and consequence sets under several criteria. MethodsIt is based on our former development for handling imprecise information in risk trees and multi-criteria hierarchies using intervals and qualitative estimates. We shortly present the theoretical background and demonstrate how it can be used for systematic policy analyses. In our model, we use decision trees and multi-criteria hierarchies extended by belief distributions for weights, probabilities and values as well as combination rules to aggregate the background information in an extended expected value model, taking into criteria weights as well as probabilities and outcome values. We used the computer-supported tool DecideIT for the aggregate decision analysis under uncertainty. ResultsThe framework has been applied in three countries: Botswana, Romania and Jordan, and extended for scenario-building during the third wave of the pandemic in Sweden, proving its feasibility in real-time policy-making for pandemic mitigation measures. DiscussionThis work resulted in a more fine-grained model for policy decision that is much more aligned to the societal needs in the future, either if the Covid-19 pandemic prevails or for the next pandemic or other society-wide hazardous emergencies.
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页数:9
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