Understanding the load profiles and electricity consumption patterns of PV mini-grid customers in rural off-grid east africa: A data-driven study

This paper analyzes the load profiles and electricity consumption patterns of different customer types electrified by off-grid solar photovoltaic (PV) mini-grids in two remote towns in Ethiopia using metered data collected over a 20-month period and a survey of 238 customers. Findings show that the load profiles of mini-grid customers differ significantly across locations, sectors, and time. The load curves at site one (Omorate) are interrupted and completely shed off for 13 h every day due to the demand consistently exceeding the generation. By contrast, the mini-grid at site two (Tum) generates enough electricity to meet the demand continuously. The average daily electricity consumption at Omorate, 1065 kW h, is more than 1.5 times the consumption at Tum, 640 kW h; despite the fact that the mini-grid at Omorate has a significantly lower installed capacity than the one at Tum. At both sites, the monthly consumption of productive users is more than three times that of households. At both sites, demand for electricity has significantly increased over time, but at varying rates. Regression analyses showed significant differences in the factors influencing electricity consumption between the two towns. Key policy implications of the study are discussed for informed planning of rural electrification through mini-grids.