A roadmap to alternative fuels for decarbonising shipping: The case of green ammonia

Decarbonisation efforts in shipping have intensified amid recent regulations and net-zero emission pledges from governments and global supply chains. Green ammonia is one of the alternative fuels that can accomplish netzero targets of the industry. However, considerable challenges exist for green ammonia adoption as the future clean energy source in maritime transport. This study scrutinises the success factors of the industry-wide adoption of green ammonia. We examine the structural relationship between success factors to explore antecedents, illustrate the precedence relationships between success factors, and present a roadmap. We first determine success factors and then employ Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) to reveal relationship between success factors and suggest a roadmap. The success factors of an alternative fuel adoption are the availability of the fuel, the cost of the fuel, R&D in the fuel, safety regulations of the fuel, propulsion technology, port infrastructure for the fuel, stakeholder support, setting of carbon tax, public awareness on emissions and early adopter companies using the fuel. 48 experts completed the ISM survey for green ammonia. Results indicate that the most fundamental success factors are stakeholder support, carbon taxation, public awareness, and the number of early adopters. These fundamental success factors would pave the way to safety regulations of ammonia and R&D progress, which would then improve ammonia-powered propulsion systems and support a vast availability of green ammonia. Following the accomplishment of the above listed success factors, ammonia cost reduction and port infrastructure development can be delivered.