Strategy formulation path towards zero-waste of municipal solid waste: A case study from Shanghai

Achieving zero-waste of municipal solid waste (MSW) is not only a vision of policymakers but also an aspired topic of scholars. Although many countries and regions have formulated ambitious zero-waste strategies, relatively few scholars have studied how these strategies were developed and implemented. This study summarized a strategy formulation path towards zero-waste of MSW, and built a zero-waste system dynamic model to simulate the zero-waste situation of Shanghai' MSW from 2000 to 2050. There are primary, intermediate and advanced stages towards zero-waste of MSW. Reaching these three stages needs to follow the goals of "zero landfill at the end, more recycling at the middle, and less generation at the source". Additionally, this study compared 13 scenarios to give MSW zero-waste strategy formulation path for Shanghai from 2025 to 2050. The simulation results show that the amount of MSW generated in Shanghai will continue to increase, reaching 16 million tons MSW and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will reach 1.7 million tons by 2050. Shanghai' MSW will achieve zero-waste by 2050 only if recycling rate can increase to 70%, proportion of green raw materials increase to 50%, resident waste disposal reducing by 10%, and resident consumption reducing by 10%. Shanghai will reduce MSW by 30%-60% and GHG emissions by 50%-90% under zero-waste scenario. Laws and regulations to strengthen the construction of a green supply chain, promotion and education to enhance residents' active zero-waste awareness, and mandatory policies to push forth zero-waste awareness are the focus of future zero-waste strategies. Although it is difficult to achieve zero-waste goal, continuous adherence to zero-waste action is still urged, which is very important for the sustainable development of the environment.