Nomogram to Predict Good Neoangiogenesis After Indirect Revascularization Surgery in Patients with Moyamoya Disease: a Case-control Study

Indirect bypass surgery is an effective treatment for moyamoya disease (MMD), but the success of the surgery depends on the formation of spontaneous collateral vessels, which cannot be accurately predicted before surgery. Developing a prediction nomogram model for neoangiogenesis in patients after indirect revascularization surgery can aid surgeons in identifying suitable candidates for indirect revascularization surgery. This retrospective observational study enrolled patients with MMD who underwent indirect bypass surgery from a multicenter cohort between December 2010 and December 2018. Data including potential clinical and radiological predictors were obtained from hospital records. A nomogram was generated based on a multivariate logistic regression analysis identifying potential predictors of good neoangiogenesis. A total of 263 hemispheres of 241 patients (mean & PLUSMN; SD age 24.38 & PLUSMN; 15.78 years, range 1-61 years) were reviewed, including 168 (63.9%) hemispheres with good postoperative collateral formation and 95 (36.1%) with poor postoperative collateral formation. Based on multivariate analysis, a nomogram was formulated incorporating four predictors, including age at operation, abundance of ICA moyamoya vessels, onset type, and Suzuki stage. The C-index for this nomogram was 0.80. Calibration curve and decision-making analysis validated the fitness and clinical application value of this nomogram. The nomogram developed in this study exhibits high accuracy in predicting good neoangiogenesis after indirect revascularization surgery in MMD patients. This model can be very helpful for clinicians when making decisions about surgical strategies for MMD patients in clinical practice.