Serum alarmins and the risk of incident interstitial lung disease in rheumatoid arthritis

Objectives To quantify associations of serum alarmins with risk of rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD). Methods Using serum collected at enrolment, three alarmins (IL-33, thymic stromal lymphopoietin [TSLP] and IL-25) were measured in a multicentre prospective RA cohort. ILD was classified using systematic medical record review. Cross-sectional associations of log-transformed (IL-33, TSLP) or quartile (IL-25) values with RA-ILD at enrolment (prevalent RA-ILD) were examined using logistic regression, while associations with incident RA-ILD developing after enrolment were examined using Cox proportional hazards. Covariates in multivariate models included age, sex, race, smoking status, RA disease activity score and anti-cyclic citrullinated antibody positivity. Results Of 2835 study participants, 115 participants (4.1%) had prevalent RA-ILD at baseline and an additional 146 (5.1%) developed incident ILD. There were no associations between serum alarmin concentrations and prevalent ILD in unadjusted or adjusted logistic regression models. In contrast, there was a significant inverse association between IL-33 concentration and the risk of developing incident RA-ILD in unadjusted (hazard ratio [HR] 0.73 per log-fold increase; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.95; P=0.018) and adjusted (HR 0.77; 95% CI: 0.59, 1.00; P=0.047) models. No significant associations of TSLP or IL-25 with incident ILD were observed. Conclusion In this study, we observed a significant inverse association between serum IL-33 concentration and the risk of developing incident RA-ILD, but no associations with prevalent ILD. Additional investigation is required to better understand the mechanisms driving this relationship and how serum alarmin IL-33 assessment might contribute to clinical risk stratification in patients with RA.