Westward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific during 1982-2020: Features and Possible Causes

The westward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) activity has been identified in the western North Pacific (WNP), but the related features and causes remain elusive. Here, based on the best track data from China, Japan, and the US, and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data in 1982-2020, we investigate characteristics of the westward migration of the WNP TC activity with various metrics, and reveal possible causes for the migration of TC tracks through analyzing its seasonality and dependence on environmental conditions. The results show that the WNP TCs show significant westward migrations in a number of metrics, including location of tracks, genesis, the first track point at which TC reaches its lifetime-maximum intensity, and the last track point in the TC lifetime. It is found that TC tracks exhibit more significant westward migrations in the easterly steering flow than in the westerly steering flow. Meanwhile, the TC longitude shift shows notable seasonal variations, for which the TCs in the easterlies move further west than those in the westerlies during July-September, vice versa during October-December. The dependence of the westward migration of TC tracks on background steering flow is associated with the different environmental conditions. The westward shift in the westerly steering is mainly due to the reduced vertical wind shear (VWS), while the weakened zonal easterly steering and reduced VWS are both closely related to the westward migration in the easterly steering. These results have important implications for understanding current and future variations in TC longitude shift.