Research on the evolution mechanism and decoupling effect of China's carbon emissions from the perspective of green credit: based on system dynamics model and Tapio model

Green credit is an important topic in the study of green finance system, but it has not been combined with China's carbon emission reduction effect and industrial carbon emissions. This study takes different industries in China as research objects to explore the relationship between green credit and industrial carbon emissions. First, the LMDI decomposition model was used to decompose the driving factors of industrial carbon emissions, and the effects of green credit efficiency and scale on carbon emissions were obtained. Secondly, on this basis, a system dynamics model was established to predict the changing trend of carbon emissions in different industries. By setting different scenarios of green credit, the development and evolution trend of carbon emission system was simulated when parameters changed, and the Tapio decoupling model was further established to analyze the decoupling effect of green credit and carbon emissions under different scenarios. Finally, the research results show that the increase in the scale of green credit can effectively inhibit carbon emissions and has the greatest effect on carbon emissions of the secondary industry. The incentive policy of green credit can effectively encourage industrial upgrading and development. With the growth of the balance of green credit, green credit and carbon emissions gradually reach the best decoupling state. This study provides empirical evidence for the objective evaluation of the implementation effect of China's green credit policy and has important reference value for the improvement and development of future policies.