Avoiding bias in estimates of population size for translocation management

被引:1
作者
Bickerton, Katherine T. [1 ,2 ]
Ewen, John G. [1 ]
Canessa, Stefano [3 ]
Cole, Nik C. [4 ,5 ]
Frost, Fay [2 ]
Mootoocurpen, Rouben [5 ]
Mccrea, Rachel [6 ]
机构
[1] Zool Soc London, Inst Zool, London, England
[2] Univ Kent, Sch Math Stat & Actuarial Sci, Canterbury, England
[3] Univ Bern, Inst Ecol & Evolut, Div Conservat Biol, Bern, Switzerland
[4] Durrell Wildlife Conservat Trust, Les Augres Manor, Jersey, England
[5] Mauritian Wildlife Fdn, Vacoas, Mauritius
[6] Univ Lancaster, Dept Math & Stat, Lancaster, England
基金
英国工程与自然科学研究理事会; 英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
capture-recapture; conservation translocation; lesser night gecko; mark-recapture; Nactus coindemirensis; reintroduction; REINTRODUCTIONS; GECKO; RIVER;
D O I
10.1002/eap.2918
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
Mark-recapture surveys are commonly used to monitor translocated populations globally. Data gathered are then used to estimate demographic parameters, such as abundance and survival, using Jolly-Seber (JS) models. However, in translocated populations initial population size is known and failure to account for this may bias parameter estimates, which are important for informing conservation decisions during population establishment. Here, we provide methods to account for known initial population size in JS models by incorporating a separate component likelihood for translocated individuals, using a maximum-likelihood estimation, with models that can be fitted using either R or MATLAB. We use simulated data and a case study of a threatened lizard species with low capture probability to demonstrate that unconstrained JS models may overestimate the size of translocated populations, especially in the early stages of post-release monitoring. Our approach corrects this bias; we use our simulations to demonstrate that overestimates of population size between 78% and 130% can occur in the unconstrained JS models when the detection probability is below 0.3 compared to 1%-8.9% for our constrained model. Our case study did not show an overestimate; however accounting for the initial population size greatly reduced error in all parameter estimates and prevented boundary estimates. Adopting the corrected JS model for translocations will help managers to obtain more robust estimates of the population sizes of translocated animals, better informing future management including reinforcement decisions, and ultimately improving translocation success.
引用
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页数:13
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