Endemic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection

被引：18

作者：

Nesteruk, Igor ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Acad Sci Ukraine, Inst Hydromech, Kiev, Ukraine

[2] Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytech Inst, Kiev, Ukraine

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2023年 / 13卷 / 01期

关键词：

EPIDEMICS; SOFTWARE;

D O I：

10.1038/s41598-023-41841-8

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The fourth year of the COVID-19 pandemic without decreasing trends in the global numbers of new daily cases, high numbers of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and re-infections together with pessimistic predictions for the Omicron wave duration force studies about the endemic stage of the disease. The global trends were illustrated with the use the accumulated numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters (additional vaccinations), and the results of calculation of the effective reproduction number provided by Johns Hopkins University. A new modified SIR model with re-infections was proposed and analyzed. The estimated parameters of equilibrium show that the global numbers of new daily cases will range between 300 thousand and one million, daily deaths-between one and 3.3 thousand.

引用

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